UK wage growth fastest in a decade

19 Feb 2019

Pound growth UK workers’ pay growth retained its fastest pace in 10 years at the end of 2018 and job creation stayed robust, according to data published on Tuesday.

Total earnings, including bonuses, increased by an annual 3.4% in the three months to December, Reuters reports, equalling their fastest rate of growth from mid-2008.

The rise was slightly under a forecast for a pick-up to 3.5% in a Reuters poll of economists.

The Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday that average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, also increased by 3.4% on the year, in line with the poll forecast.

The robust labour market in the UK has resisted an economic slowdown since the 2016 Brexit referendum.

The figures unveiled on Tuesday revealed the number of people in work increased by 167,000 in the three months to December, the largest rise since Q1 2018 and stronger than the poll’s prediction of 140,000.

With the UK set to leave the EU at the end of March, a number of firms have slashed investment in equipment, potentially increasing the chance of them hiring more staff.

Indications of apprehension amongst businesses might not have yet appeared in the jobs figures, according to Andrew Wishart, an economist with consultancy Capital Economics: “The (business) surveys deteriorated more markedly in January, so a Brexit effect might start to weaken employment growth in the next batch of official data.”

With unemployment at its lowest rate since 1975 – 4.0% in the three months to December – employers have started to increase pay for staff at a faster rate.

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development said earlier this week that private sector employers were planning to hike basic pay rates in 2019 by the highest amount since the survey began in 2012.

Furthermore, the Bank of England has stated it will need to progressively increase interest rates to offset inflation pressures from rising wages.

Dan Hanson from Bloomberg Economics stated: “If there’s a Brexit deal, we think the economy will run at full employment for the rest of this year. That would challenge the Bank of England’s recent dovish take on the economic outlook -- currently expecting spare capacity to re-emerge later in 2019. If we’re right, the central bank is likely to lift rates in August.”

In February, the BoE forecast wage growth would slow to 3.0% in 2019, before rallying again.

Adjusted for inflation, total earnings in Q4 2018 increased by 1.3%, the fastest rise since the end of 2016, according to the ONS.

That said, the rate of nominal wage increases is still slower than the 4% hikes pre-financial crisis.